FTM – West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

This paper describes results of FTM–West model solutions for a set of hypothetical future fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative levels of harvest administrative fees or subsidies. The paper briefly describes estimates of harvestable wood (upper bounds) and acreage treatable under the different thinning regimes. The paper also discusses projected effects that thinning regime, cost assumptions and subsidy levels have on wood removal volumes absorbed by the market, thinning program net costs, and broader impacts on regional forest product markets and timber revenues. Results show that even with industry bearing the assumed administrative costs of thinning programs, substantial volumes of wood could be thinned, but more so in coastal regions than inland regions of the West. Also, replacing administrative fee assumptions with hypothetical removal subsidies increases the proportion of harvestable wood removed; a sensitivity observed primarily in the inland regions. Results show also that wood removals from fuel treatment programs could displace a large fraction of timber supply from conventional sources, reducing regional timber harvest and timber revenues that would otherwise be projected to increase for state and private timberland managers in the West. 1 Andrew D. Kramp is an Economics Research Assistant, USDA/FS Forest Products Lab, One Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53726 Phone: (608) 231-9272 email: [email protected]